Bitcoin Forecast

BITCOINFORECAST

Last Update: 01 Mar 2026 02:01 UTC

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Market Pulse

Bearish Bias

Bull 28% • Bear 72% • Conviction: Strong

Current Bias Context

Downside pressure is dominant across higher timeframes. Treat counter-trend rallies as reactive unless invalidation levels are reclaimed.

EW alignment: 1/3 bearish • 2/3 bullish • 0/3 neutral
Cycle-lows state: Failure active • S/R regime: Resist-led
Ichimoku regime: Below 26/74
Wyckoff regime: Dist 23/77
Channel regime: None 49/51
Global conviction: Strong

Engine Matrix

TA	4H	1D	1W	Overall
EW Bias	Bull 55/45	Bull 61/39	Bear 17/83	Bear 28/72
Cycle Lows	DCL failure	DCL failure	WCL failure	Failure active
S/R	Resist-led	Resist-led	Support-led	Resist-led
Ichimoku	Neutral Above	Bear Below	Bear Below	Below 26/74
Wyckoff	Dist 24/76	Accum 70/30	Dist 5/95	Dist 23/77
Channels	Desc Ch Fail↑	Falling Wdg Inside	None Fail↓	None 49/51
Conviction	Mixed	Moderate	Strong	Strong

Compact Matrix

TA

4H

1D

1W

OVR

EW Bias

72%

Cycle Lows

Failure

S/R

Resist

Ichimoku

Below 26/74

Wyckoff

Dist 23/77

Channels

Desc Ch Fail↑

Falling Wdg I…

None 49/51

Conviction

Mixed

Moderate

Strong

Strong

External access mode: only the Chart button is available.

Cycle Lows Outlook

Timing and confirmation context for next Daily, Weekly, and Yearly cycle lows.

Days till Daily Cycle Low

Starts 23 Mar 2026

Days till Weekly Cycle Low

Starts 05 May 2026

Days till Yearly Cycle Low

Starts 29 Sep 2026

Timing
Next DCL: 22d to window start (23 Mar 2026)
Next WCL: 65d to window start (05 May 2026)
Next YCL: 212d to window start (29 Sep 2026)

Translation
Previous DCH: RT
Previous WCH: RT
DCH translation: RT (bullish skew; tops formed late in cycle)
WCH translation: RT (upward bias into next WCL; 65d to window)
DCL phase: middle (22d to window start)
WCL phase: middle (65d to window start)

Confirmation Signals
DSS Bressert: last cross marker 07 Feb 2026
10WSMA: close-above confirmation on latest WCL
Trendline: active, no confirmed break yet
CL Failure: active (break below last confirmed cycle low)

Elliott Wave

4H • Cycle Preview

Highest-probability path: [BULL] Bull Reversal

4H • EW Snapshot

[BULL] Bull Reversal (55%)

Pattern: Corrective • Next wave: (1) • Likely target: $69,999

Invalidation: < $59,831

55% Bull / 45% Bear

1D • Cycle Preview

Highest-probability path: [BULL] Bull Reversal

1D • EW Snapshot

[BULL] Bull Reversal (61%)

Pattern: Corrective • Next wave: (1) • Likely target: $72,300

Invalidation: < $59,282

61% Bull / 39% Bear

1W • Cycle Preview

Highest-probability path: [BEAR] Wave C

1W • EW Snapshot

[BEAR] Wave C (36%)

Pattern: Corrective • Next wave: (a) • Likely target: $52,324

Invalidation: > $100,870

17% Bull / 83% Bear

Zoomed cycle previews are based on each timeframe's highest-probability EW scenario.

Wyckoff Snapshot

Distribution • 24/76

ACCUMMARKUDISTRMARKD

Confidence: 58%

Events: SOS, SOS, SOW, SOW

Trading range: $67,464 - $70,308

Forecast: Markdown continuation (66%)

Invalidation: > $70,573

Trigger: close below $67,464 (SOW continuation)

Risk anchor: UT/range high near $70,308

Accumulation • 70/30

ACCUMMARKUDISTRMARKD

Confidence: 60%

Events: Spring, Spring, SOW, Spring

Trading range: $65,143 - $88,478

Forecast: Markup continuation (63%)

Invalidation: < $64,466

Trigger: close above $88,478 (SOS/LPS confirmation)

Risk anchor: spring/range low near $65,143

Distribution • 5/95

ACCUMMARKUDISTRMARKD

Confidence: 63%

Events: SOS, SOS, SOW, SOW

Trading range: $98,028 - $120,925

Forecast: Markdown continuation (65%)

Invalidation: > $122,805

Trigger: close below $98,028 (SOW continuation)

Risk anchor: UT/range high near $120,925

Deterministic phase/event context (advisory structure layer, not standalone trade signals).

Ichimoku Snapshot

4H • Ichimoku

Neutral • 58/42

Confidence: 33%

State: Above Cloud • TK: BEAR • Chikou: no

Forecast: Range/transition (40%)

Invalidation: n/a

1D • Ichimoku

Confidence: 62%

State: Below Cloud • TK: BEAR • Chikou: yes

Forecast: Bear continuation (66%)

Invalidation: > $69,887

1W • Ichimoku

Confidence: 43%

State: Below Cloud • TK: BEAR • Chikou: yes

Forecast: Bear continuation (55%)

Invalidation: > $94,132

Cloud-first deterministic Ichimoku regime context with projected trigger/target and invalidation.

Channel Snapshot

4H • Channels

Descending Channel • failed up-break

Confidence: 61% • Bull/Bear: 49/51

Stage: confirmed

Rails: upper $65,775 • lower $58,672 • dist 0.9%

Breakout: up unconfirmed • vol-z -1.35 • range 0.96x

Target: $51,635 • Invalidation: > $65,848

1D • Channels

Falling Wedge • inside

Confidence: 66% • Bull/Bear: 55/45

Stage: confirmed

Rails: upper $71,588 • lower $57,963 • dist 6.9%

Breakout: none unconfirmed • vol-z 0.22 • range 1.41x

Target: $92,813 • Invalidation: < $56,398

1W • Channels

Head and Shoulders • failed down-break

Confidence: 63% • Bull/Bear: 46/54

Stage: confirmed

Neckline (ext): $68,872 → $83,153

Projected RS: confirmed as actual

Breakout: down unconfirmed • vol-z -0.64 • range 0.81x

Target: $35,523 • Invalidation: > $125,660

Deterministic channels/wedges with confirmation-based breakout state and risk anchors.

Support / Resistance Snapshot

4H • S/R Snapshot

Nearest Support: $62,180 (6.3%)

Nearest Resistance: $67,001 (0.9%)

Confluence: $59,930 • 1d+1w+4h

1D • S/R Snapshot

Nearest Support: $62,402 (6.8%)

Nearest Resistance: $67,186 (0.4%)

Confluence: $59,727 • 1d+1w+4h

1W • S/R Snapshot

Nearest Support: $65,081 (2.8%)

Nearest Resistance: $69,199 (3.4%)

Confluence: $59,751 • 1d+1w+4h

Nearest S/R and strongest confluence by timeframe (distance measured from current price).