Bitcoin Forecast

BITCOINFORECAST

Last Update: 08 Mar 2026 02:01 UTC

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Market Pulse

Bearish Bias

Bull 37% • Bear 63% • Conviction: Moderate

Current Bias Context

Downside pressure is dominant across higher timeframes. Treat counter-trend rallies as reactive unless invalidation levels are reclaimed.

EW alignment: 1/3 bearish • 2/3 bullish • 0/3 neutral
Cycle-lows state: Failure active • S/R regime: Resist-led
Ichimoku regime: Below 38/62
Wyckoff regime: Dist 30/70
Channel regime: None 41/59
Global conviction: Moderate

Engine Matrix

TA	4H	1D	1W	Overall
EW Bias	Bear 17/83	Bull 61/39	Bull 55/45	Bear 37/63
Cycle Lows	DCL failure	DCL failure	WCL failure	Failure active
S/R	Resist-led	Resist-led	Balanced	Resist-led
Ichimoku	Bull Above	Bear Below	Bear Below	Below 38/62
Wyckoff	Dist 31/69	Accum 76/24	Dist 11/89	Dist 30/70
Channels	None Inside	Desc Ch Inside	None Fail↓	None 41/59
Conviction	Strong	Moderate	Mixed	Moderate

Compact Matrix

TA

4H

1D

1W

OVR

EW Bias

63%

Cycle Lows

Failure

S/R

Resist

Ichimoku

Below 38/62

Wyckoff

Dist 30/70

Channels

None 41/59

Conviction

Strong

Moderate

Mixed

Moderate

External access mode: only the Chart button is available.

Cycle Lows Outlook

Timing and confirmation context for next Daily, Weekly, and Yearly cycle lows.

Days till Daily Cycle Low

Starts 23 Mar 2026

Days till Weekly Cycle Low

Starts 05 May 2026

Days till Yearly Cycle Low

Starts 29 Sep 2026

Timing
Next DCL: 15d to window start (23 Mar 2026)
Next WCL: 58d to window start (05 May 2026)
Next YCL: 205d to window start (29 Sep 2026)

Translation
Previous DCH: RT
Previous WCH: RT
DCH translation: RT (bullish skew; tops formed late in cycle)
WCH translation: RT (upward bias into next WCL; 58d to window)
DCL phase: end (15d to window start)
WCL phase: middle (58d to window start)

Confirmation Signals
DSS Bressert: last cross marker 07 Feb 2026
10WSMA: close-above confirmation on latest WCL
Trendline: break confirmed on 04 Mar 2026
CL Failure: active (break below last confirmed cycle low)

Elliott Wave

4H • Cycle Preview

Highest-probability path: [BEAR] Wave C

4H • EW Snapshot

[BEAR] Wave C (36%)

Pattern: Corrective • Next wave: (1) • Likely target: $70,026

Invalidation: > $76,268

17% Bull / 83% Bear

1D • Cycle Preview

Highest-probability path: [BULL] Bull Reversal

1D • EW Snapshot

[BULL] Bull Reversal (61%)

Pattern: Corrective • Next wave: (a) • Likely target: $72,300

Invalidation: < $59,282

61% Bull / 39% Bear

1W • Cycle Preview

Highest-probability path: [BULL] Bull Reversal

1W • EW Snapshot

[BULL] Bull Reversal (55%)

Pattern: Corrective • Next wave: (a) • Likely target: $159,630

Invalidation: < $56,810

55% Bull / 45% Bear

Zoomed cycle previews are based on each timeframe's highest-probability EW scenario.

Wyckoff Snapshot

Distribution • 31/69

ACCUMMARKUDISTRMARKD

Confidence: 42%

Events: SOS, SOS, SOS, SOW

Trading range: $67,419 - $71,456

Forecast: Markdown continuation (60%)

Invalidation: > $71,670

Trigger: close below $67,419 (SOW continuation)

Risk anchor: UT/range high near $71,456

Accumulation • 76/24

ACCUMMARKUDISTRMARKD

Confidence: 63%

Events: Spring, SOW, Spring, SOS

Trading range: $65,019 - $79,381

Forecast: Markup continuation (66%)

Invalidation: < $64,321

Trigger: close above $79,381 (SOS/LPS confirmation)

Risk anchor: spring/range low near $65,019

Distribution • 11/89

ACCUMMARKUDISTRMARKD

Confidence: 46%

Events: SOS, SOS, SOW, SOW

Trading range: $98,028 - $120,925

Forecast: Markdown continuation (62%)

Invalidation: > $122,800

Trigger: close below $98,028 (SOW continuation)

Risk anchor: UT/range high near $120,925

Deterministic phase/event context (advisory structure layer, not standalone trade signals).

Ichimoku Snapshot

4H • Ichimoku

Confidence: 38%

State: Above Cloud • TK: BEAR • Chikou: no

Forecast: Bull continuation (51%)

Invalidation: < $70,320

1D • Ichimoku

Confidence: 36%

State: Below Cloud • TK: BULL • Chikou: no

Forecast: Bear continuation (50%)

Invalidation: > $68,643

1W • Ichimoku

Confidence: 43%

State: Below Cloud • TK: BEAR • Chikou: yes

Forecast: Bear continuation (55%)

Invalidation: > $94,129

Cloud-first deterministic Ichimoku regime context with projected trigger/target and invalidation.

Channel Snapshot

4H • Channels

Head and Shoulders • inside

Confidence: 84% • Bull/Bear: 36/64

Stage: confirmed

Neckline (ext): $67,710 → $55,879

Projected RS: confirmed as actual

Breakout: none unconfirmed • vol-z -1.35 • range 0.31x

Target: $58,322 • Invalidation: > $69,601

1D • Channels

Descending Channel • inside

Confidence: 80% • Bull/Bear: 36/64

Stage: confirmed

Rails: upper $72,122 • lower $57,963 • dist 7.3%

Breakout: none unconfirmed • vol-z -1.19 • range 0.48x

Target: $32,166 • Invalidation: > $71,459

1W • Channels

Head and Shoulders • failed down-break

Confidence: 69% • Bull/Bear: 46/54

Stage: confirmed

Neckline (ext): $68,872 → $83,339

Projected RS: confirmed as actual

Breakout: down unconfirmed • vol-z -0.52 • range 0.96x

Target: $35,523 • Invalidation: > $108,447

Deterministic channels/wedges with confirmation-based breakout state and risk anchors.

Support / Resistance Snapshot

4H • S/R Snapshot

Nearest Support: $62,158 (7.5%)

Nearest Resistance: $67,546 (0.5%)

Confluence: $59,930 • 1d+1w+4h

1D • S/R Snapshot

Nearest Support: $62,402 (7.2%)

Nearest Resistance: $69,199 (2.9%)

Confluence: $59,727 • 1d+1w+4h

1W • S/R Snapshot

Nearest Support: $65,081 (3.2%)

Nearest Resistance: $69,199 (2.9%)

Confluence: $59,751 • 1d+1w+4h

Nearest S/R and strongest confluence by timeframe (distance measured from current price).