Bitcoin Forecast

BITCOINFORECAST

Last Update: 15 Mar 2026 02:02 UTC

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Market Pulse

Bearish Bias

Bull 46% • Bear 54% • Conviction: Mixed

Current Bias Context

Bias is mixed and regime transition risk is elevated. Prioritize invalidation discipline and let confirmation signals decide direction.

EW alignment: 0/3 bearish • 3/3 bullish • 0/3 neutral
Cycle-lows state: Failure active • S/R regime: Resist-led
Ichimoku regime: Below 34/66
Wyckoff regime: Dist 53/47
Channel regime: None 43/57
Global conviction: Mixed

Engine Matrix

TA	4H	1D	1W	Overall
EW Bias	Neutral 51/49	Bull 61/39	Bull 55/45	Bear 46/54
Cycle Lows	DCL failure	DCL failure	WCL failure	Failure active
S/R	Resist-led	Resist-led	Resist-led	Resist-led
Ichimoku	Neutral Above	Bear Below	Bear Below	Below 34/66
Wyckoff	Accum 95/5	Accum 76/24	Dist 28/72	Dist 53/47
Channels	None Inside	Desc Ch Fail↑	None Fail↓	None 43/57
Conviction	Mixed	Moderate	Mixed	Mixed

Compact Matrix

TA

4H

1D

1W

OVR

EW Bias

54%

Cycle Lows

Failure

S/R

Resist

Ichimoku

Below 34/66

Wyckoff

Dist 53/47

Channels

Desc Ch Fail↑

None 43/57

Conviction

Mixed

Moderate

Mixed

Mixed

External access mode: only the Chart button is available.

Cycle Lows Outlook

Timing and confirmation context for next Daily, Weekly, and Yearly cycle lows.

Days till Daily Cycle Low

Starts 23 Mar 2026

Days till Weekly Cycle Low

Starts 05 May 2026

Days till Yearly Cycle Low

Starts 29 Sep 2026

Timing
Next DCL: 8d to window start (23 Mar 2026)
Next WCL: 51d to window start (05 May 2026)
Next YCL: 198d to window start (29 Sep 2026)

Translation
Previous DCH: RT
Previous WCH: RT
DCH translation: RT (bullish skew; tops formed late in cycle)
WCH translation: RT (upward bias into next WCL; 51d to window)
DCL phase: end (8d to window start)
WCL phase: end (51d to window start)

Confirmation Signals
DSS Bressert: last cross marker 07 Feb 2026
10WSMA: close-above confirmation on latest WCL
Trendline: break confirmed on 04 Mar 2026
CL Failure: active (break below last confirmed cycle low)

Elliott Wave

4H • Cycle Preview

Highest-probability path: [BULL] Bull Reversal

4H • EW Snapshot

[BULL] Bull Reversal (51%)

Pattern: Corrective • Next wave: (1) • Likely target: $74,046

Invalidation: < $62,291

51% Bull / 49% Bear

1D • Cycle Preview

Highest-probability path: [BULL] Bull Reversal

1D • EW Snapshot

[BULL] Bull Reversal (61%)

Pattern: Corrective • Next wave: (a) • Likely target: $72,300

Invalidation: < $59,282

61% Bull / 39% Bear

1W • Cycle Preview

Highest-probability path: [BULL] Bull Reversal

1W • EW Snapshot

[BULL] Bull Reversal (55%)

Pattern: Corrective • Next wave: (a) • Likely target: $159,630

Invalidation: < $56,810

55% Bull / 45% Bear

Zoomed cycle previews are based on each timeframe's highest-probability EW scenario.

Wyckoff Snapshot

Accumulation • 95/5

ACCUMMARKUDISTRMARKD

Confidence: 74%

Events: SOS, SOS, SOS, SOS

Trading range: $63,868 - $68,076

Forecast: Markup continuation (65%)

Invalidation: < $63,682

Trigger: close above $68,076 (SOS/LPS confirmation)

Risk anchor: spring/range low near $63,868

Accumulation • 76/24

ACCUMMARKUDISTRMARKD

Confidence: 64%

Events: Spring, SOW, Spring, SOS

Trading range: $65,019 - $73,133

Forecast: Markup continuation (66%)

Invalidation: < $64,399

Trigger: close above $73,133 (SOS/LPS confirmation)

Risk anchor: spring/range low near $65,019

Distribution • 28/72

ACCUMMARKUDISTRMARKD

Confidence: 46%

Events: SOS, SOS, SOW, SOW

Trading range: $98,028 - $120,925

Forecast: Markdown continuation (52%)

Invalidation: > $122,784

Trigger: close below $98,028 (SOW continuation)

Risk anchor: UT/range high near $120,925

Deterministic phase/event context (advisory structure layer, not standalone trade signals).

Ichimoku Snapshot

4H • Ichimoku

Neutral • 55/45

Confidence: 30%

State: Above Cloud • TK: BEAR • Chikou: no

Forecast: Range/transition (41%)

Invalidation: n/a

1D • Ichimoku

Confidence: 39%

State: Below Cloud • TK: BULL • Chikou: no

Forecast: Bear continuation (52%)

Invalidation: > $68,596

1W • Ichimoku

Confidence: 42%

State: Below Cloud • TK: BEAR • Chikou: yes

Forecast: Bear continuation (54%)

Invalidation: > $94,120

Cloud-first deterministic Ichimoku regime context with projected trigger/target and invalidation.

Channel Snapshot

4H • Channels

Double Top • inside

Confidence: 80% • Bull/Bear: 36/64

Stage: confirmed

Rails: upper $72,621 • lower $64,205 • dist 2.4%

Breakout: none unconfirmed • vol-z -1.31 • range 0.37x

Target: $57,092 • Invalidation: > $72,796

1D • Channels

Descending Channel • failed up-break

Confidence: 77% • Bull/Bear: 42/58

Stage: confirmed

Rails: upper $72,122 • lower $57,963 • dist 1.3%

Breakout: up unconfirmed • vol-z -1.84 • range 0.33x

Target: $30,633 • Invalidation: > $68,887

1W • Channels

Head and Shoulders • failed down-break

Confidence: 69% • Bull/Bear: 46/54

Stage: confirmed

Neckline (ext): $68,872 → $83,525

Projected RS: confirmed as actual

Breakout: down unconfirmed • vol-z -0.64 • range 0.89x

Target: $35,523 • Invalidation: > $108,875

Deterministic channels/wedges with confirmation-based breakout state and risk anchors.

Support / Resistance Snapshot

4H • S/R Snapshot

Nearest Support: $62,158 (12.3%)

Nearest Resistance: $71,932 (1.5%)

Confluence: $59,930 • 1d+1w+4h

1D • S/R Snapshot

Nearest Support: $62,402 (12.3%)

Nearest Resistance: $72,222 (1.5%)

Confluence: $59,727 • 1d+1w+4h

1W • S/R Snapshot

Nearest Support: $69,199 (2.8%)

Nearest Resistance: $72,144 (1.4%)

Confluence: $59,751 • 1d+1w+4h

Nearest S/R and strongest confluence by timeframe (distance measured from current price).