Bitcoin Forecast

BITCOINFORECAST

Last Update: 26 Jul 2026 02:02 UTC

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Market Pulse

Bearish Bias

Bull 42% • Bear 58% • Conviction: Moderate

Current Bias Context

Downside pressure is dominant across higher timeframes. Treat counter-trend rallies as reactive unless invalidation levels are reclaimed.

EW alignment: 1/3 bearish • 2/3 bullish • 0/3 neutral
Cycle-lows state: Failure active • S/R regime: Resist-led
Ichimoku regime: Below 26/74
Wyckoff regime: Markdown 20/80
Channel regime: None 40/60
Global conviction: Moderate

Engine Matrix

TA	4H	1D	1W	Overall
EW Bias	Bear 22/78	Bull 61/39	Bull 55/45	Bear 42/58
Cycle Lows	DCL failure	DCL failure	WCL failure	Failure active
S/R	Resist-led	Resist-led	Resist-led	Resist-led
Ichimoku	Neutral Inside	Neutral Inside	Bear Below	Below 26/74
Wyckoff	Dist 41/59	Dist 5/95	Markdown 22/78	Markdown 20/80
Channels	None Inside	None Fail↓	None Inside	None 40/60
Conviction	Strong	Moderate	Mixed	Moderate

Compact Matrix

TA

4H

1D

1W

OVR

EW Bias

58%

Cycle Lows

Failure

S/R

Resist

Ichimoku

Below 26/74

Wyckoff

Markdown 20/80

Channels

None 40/60

Conviction

Strong

Moderate

Mixed

Moderate

External access mode: only the Chart button is available.

Cycle Lows Outlook

Timing and confirmation context for next Daily, Weekly, and Yearly cycle lows.

Days till Daily Cycle Low

21 Jul 2026 - 24 Aug 2026

Days till Weekly Cycle Low

05 May 2026 - 28 Jul 2026

Days till Yearly Cycle Low

Starts 29 Sep 2026

Timing
Next DCL: window active (29d left)
Next WCL: window active (2d left)
Next YCL: 65d to window start (29 Sep 2026)

Translation
Previous DCH: RT
Previous WCH: LT
DCH translation: RT (bullish skew; tops formed late in cycle)
WCH translation: LT (weaker cycle; downside pressure tends to appear earlier)
DCL phase: window active (29d left)
WCL phase: window active (2d left)

Confirmation Signals
DSS Bressert: last cross marker 07 Jun 2026
10WSMA: close-above confirmation on latest WCL
Trendline: active, no confirmed break yet
CL Failure: active (break below last confirmed cycle low)

Elliott Wave

4H • Cycle Preview

Highest-probability path: [BEAR] Wave C

4H • EW Snapshot

[BEAR] Wave C (34%)

Pattern: Corrective • Next wave: (d) • Likely target: $63,840

Invalidation: > $68,932

22% Bull / 78% Bear

1D • Cycle Preview

Highest-probability path: [BULL] Bull Reversal

1D • EW Snapshot

[BULL] Bull Reversal (61%)

Pattern: Corrective • Next wave: (d) • Likely target: $78,280

Invalidation: < $54,871

61% Bull / 39% Bear

1W • Cycle Preview

Highest-probability path: [BULL] Bull Reversal

1W • EW Snapshot

[BULL] Bull Reversal (55%)

Pattern: Impulsive • Next wave: (A) • Likely target: $67,255

Invalidation: < $54,871

55% Bull / 45% Bear

Zoomed cycle previews are based on each timeframe's highest-probability EW scenario.

Wyckoff Snapshot

Distribution • 41/59

ACCUMMARKUDISTRMARKD

Confidence: 53%

Events: SOS, SOS, SOW, SOW

Trading range: $64,039 - $66,164

Forecast: Markdown continuation (42%)

Invalidation: > $66,255

Trigger: close below $64,039 (SOW continuation)

Risk anchor: UT/range high near $66,164

Distribution • 5/95

ACCUMMARKUDISTRMARKD

Confidence: 72%

Events: ST, AR, SOS, SOS

Trading range: $67,951 - $81,581

Forecast: Markdown continuation (65%)

Invalidation: > $81,922

Trigger: close below $67,951 (SOW continuation)

Risk anchor: UT/range high near $81,581

Markdown • 22/78

ACCUMMARKUDISTRMARKD

Confidence: 42%

Events: SOS, LPSY, SOW, SOW

Trading range: $85,405 - $114,515

Forecast: Markdown continuation (55%)

Invalidation: > $115,815

Trigger: failed rally below $114,515 or break under $85,405

Risk anchor: reclaim above $114,515

Deterministic phase/event context (advisory structure layer, not standalone trade signals).

Ichimoku Snapshot

4H • Ichimoku

Neutral • 51/49

Confidence: 15%

State: Inside Cloud • TK: BEAR • Chikou: no

Forecast: Range/transition (42%)

Invalidation: n/a

1D • Ichimoku

Neutral • 48/52

Confidence: 15%

State: Inside Cloud • TK: BULL • Chikou: no

Forecast: Range/transition (42%)

Invalidation: n/a

1W • Ichimoku

Confidence: 62%

State: Below Cloud • TK: BEAR • Chikou: yes

Forecast: Bear continuation (66%)

Invalidation: > $76,082

Cloud-first deterministic Ichimoku regime context with projected trigger/target and invalidation.

Channel Snapshot

4H • Channels

Head and Shoulders • inside

Confidence: 79% • Bull/Bear: 36/64

Stage: developing

Neckline (ext): $61,869 → $63,915

Projected RS: $66,170 @ 26 Jul 2026 (48%)

Breakout: none unconfirmed • vol-z -1.15 • range 0.43x

Target: $60,159 • Invalidation: > $67,105

1D • Channels

Head and Shoulders • failed down-break

Confidence: 65% • Bull/Bear: 43/57

Stage: confirmed

Neckline (ext): $59,729 → $69,356

Projected RS: confirmed as actual

Breakout: down unconfirmed • vol-z -1.57 • range 0.39x

Target: $57,594 • Invalidation: > $67,865

1W • Channels

Head and Shoulders • inside

Confidence: 73% • Bull/Bear: 40/60

Stage: confirmed

Neckline (ext): $70,015 → $54,539

Projected RS: confirmed as actual

Breakout: none unconfirmed • vol-z -1.03 • range 0.50x

Target: $36,629 • Invalidation: > $85,428

Deterministic channels/wedges with confirmation-based breakout state and risk anchors.

Support / Resistance Snapshot

4H • S/R Snapshot

Nearest Support: $60,716 (5.8%)

Nearest Resistance: $65,380 (1.4%)

Confluence: $67,069 • 1d+1w+4h

1D • S/R Snapshot

Nearest Support: $59,945 (6.8%)

Nearest Resistance: $64,401 (0.1%)

Confluence: $58,361 • 1d+1w+4h

1W • S/R Snapshot

Nearest Support: $59,727 (7.2%)

Nearest Resistance: $65,027 (1.1%)

Confluence: $67,110 • 1d+1w+4h

Nearest S/R and strongest confluence by timeframe (distance measured from current price).