Bitcoin Forecast

BITCOINFORECAST

Last Update: 16 Aug 2026 02:02 UTC

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Market Pulse

Bearish Bias

Bull 42% • Bear 58% • Conviction: Moderate

Current Bias Context

Downside pressure is dominant across higher timeframes. Treat counter-trend rallies as reactive unless invalidation levels are reclaimed.

EW alignment: 1/3 bearish • 2/3 bullish • 0/3 neutral
Cycle-lows state: Failure active • S/R regime: Resist-led
Ichimoku regime: Below 22/78
Wyckoff regime: Markdown 7/93
Channel regime: None 40/60
Global conviction: Moderate

Engine Matrix

TA	4H	1D	1W	Overall
EW Bias	Bear 22/78	Bull 61/39	Bull 55/45	Bear 42/58
Cycle Lows	DCL failure	DCL failure	WCL early	Failure active
S/R	Resist-led	Resist-led	Resist-led	Resist-led
Ichimoku	Bear Below	Neutral Inside	Bear Below	Below 22/78
Wyckoff	Dist 5/95	Dist 5/95	Markdown 9/91	Markdown 7/93
Channels	None Inside	None Fail↓	None Inside	None 40/60
Conviction	Strong	Moderate	Mixed	Moderate

Compact Matrix

TA

4H

1D

1W

OVR

EW Bias

58%

Cycle Lows

Failure

S/R

Resist

Ichimoku

Below 22/78

Wyckoff

Markdown 7/93

Channels

None 40/60

Conviction

Strong

Moderate

Mixed

Moderate

External access mode: only the Chart button is available.

Cycle Lows Outlook

Timing and confirmation context for next Daily, Weekly, and Yearly cycle lows.

Days till Daily Cycle Low

21 Jul 2026 - 24 Aug 2026

Days till Weekly Cycle Low

Starts 13 Dec 2026

Days till Yearly Cycle Low

Starts 29 Sep 2026

Timing
Next DCL: window active (8d left)
Next WCL: 119d to window start (13 Dec 2026)
Next YCL: 44d to window start (29 Sep 2026)

Translation
Previous DCH: LT
Previous WCH: LT
DCH translation: LT (bearish skew; tops formed early in cycle)
WCH translation: LT (weaker cycle; downside pressure tends to appear earlier)
DCL phase: window active (8d left)
WCL phase: start (119d to window start)

Confirmation Signals
DSS Bressert: last cross marker 02 Aug 2026
10WSMA: close-above confirmation on latest WCL
Trendline: active, no confirmed break yet
CL Failure: active (break below last confirmed cycle low)

Elliott Wave

4H • Cycle Preview

Highest-probability path: [BEAR] Wave C

4H • EW Snapshot

[BEAR] Wave C (34%)

Pattern: Corrective • Next wave: (d) • Likely target: $62,320

Invalidation: > $67,447

22% Bull / 78% Bear

1D • Cycle Preview

Highest-probability path: [BULL] Bull Reversal

1D • EW Snapshot

[BULL] Bull Reversal (61%)

Pattern: Corrective • Next wave: (d) • Likely target: $66,924

Invalidation: < $59,117

61% Bull / 39% Bear

1W • Cycle Preview

Highest-probability path: [BULL] Bull Reversal

1W • EW Snapshot

[BULL] Bull Reversal (55%)

Pattern: Impulsive • Next wave: (A) • Likely target: $67,255

Invalidation: < $54,871

55% Bull / 45% Bear

Zoomed cycle previews are based on each timeframe's highest-probability EW scenario.

Wyckoff Snapshot

Distribution • 5/95

ACCUMMARKUDISTRMARKD

Confidence: 67%

Events: SOW, Spring, Spring, ST

Trading range: $63,860 - $65,261

Forecast: Markdown continuation (64%)

Invalidation: > $65,324

Trigger: close below $63,860 (SOW continuation)

Risk anchor: UT/range high near $65,261

Distribution • 5/95

ACCUMMARKUDISTRMARKD

Confidence: 78%

Events: ST, AR, SOS, SOS

Trading range: $63,686 - $77,422

Forecast: Markdown continuation (66%)

Invalidation: > $77,676

Trigger: close below $63,686 (SOW continuation)

Risk anchor: UT/range high near $77,422

Markdown • 9/91

ACCUMMARKUDISTRMARKD

Confidence: 50%

Events: SOS, LPSY, SOW, SOW

Trading range: $81,715 - $114,515

Forecast: Markdown continuation (63%)

Invalidation: > $115,682

Trigger: failed rally below $114,515 or break under $81,715

Risk anchor: reclaim above $114,515

Deterministic phase/event context (advisory structure layer, not standalone trade signals).

Ichimoku Snapshot

4H • Ichimoku

Confidence: 40%

State: Below Cloud • TK: BEAR • Chikou: yes

Forecast: Bear continuation (53%)

Invalidation: > $63,505

1D • Ichimoku

Neutral • 45/55

Confidence: 21%

State: Inside Cloud • TK: BEAR • Chikou: no

Forecast: Range/transition (41%)

Invalidation: n/a

1W • Ichimoku

Confidence: 62%

State: Below Cloud • TK: BEAR • Chikou: yes

Forecast: Bear continuation (66%)

Invalidation: > $70,994

Cloud-first deterministic Ichimoku regime context with projected trigger/target and invalidation.

Channel Snapshot

4H • Channels

Double Top • inside

Confidence: 79% • Bull/Bear: 36/64

Stage: confirmed

Rails: upper $65,779 • lower $62,562 • dist 0.8%

Breakout: none unconfirmed • vol-z -1.25 • range 0.08x

Target: $58,975 • Invalidation: > $65,609

1D • Channels

Head and Shoulders • failed down-break

Confidence: 70% • Bull/Bear: 42/58

Stage: confirmed

Neckline (ext): $55,884 → $64,248

Projected RS: confirmed as actual

Breakout: down unconfirmed • vol-z -1.97 • range 0.22x

Target: $57,389 • Invalidation: > $67,377

1W • Channels

Head and Shoulders • inside

Confidence: 73% • Bull/Bear: 40/60

Stage: confirmed

Neckline (ext): $70,015 → $52,593

Projected RS: confirmed as actual

Breakout: none unconfirmed • vol-z -1.32 • range 0.51x

Target: $36,629 • Invalidation: > $85,164

Deterministic channels/wedges with confirmation-based breakout state and risk anchors.

Support / Resistance Snapshot

4H • S/R Snapshot

Nearest Support: $60,716 (3.7%)

Nearest Resistance: $63,268 (0.4%)

Confluence: $58,178 • 1d+4h

1D • S/R Snapshot

Nearest Support: $59,945 (4.9%)

Nearest Resistance: $63,775 (1.1%)

Confluence: $58,361 • 1d+1w+4h

1W • S/R Snapshot

Nearest Support: $59,727 (5.3%)

Nearest Resistance: $65,027 (3.1%)

Confluence: $57,689 • 1d+1w

Nearest S/R and strongest confluence by timeframe (distance measured from current price).