Bitcoin Forecast

BITCOINFORECAST

Last Update: 23 Aug 2026 02:01 UTC

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Market Pulse

Bullish Bias

Bull 58% • Bear 42% • Conviction: Moderate

Current Bias Context

Upside structure is leading across higher timeframes. Pullbacks remain buy-the-dip until bullish invalidations fail.

EW alignment: 1/3 bearish • 2/3 bullish • 0/3 neutral
Cycle-lows state: Cycle early • S/R regime: Resist-led
Ichimoku regime: Below 53/47
Wyckoff regime: Markdown 28/72
Channel regime: None 69/31
Global conviction: Moderate

Engine Matrix

TA	4H	1D	1W	Overall
EW Bias	Bear 22/78	Neutral 51/49	Bull 55/45	Bull 58/42
Cycle Lows	DCL early	DCL early	WCL early	Cycle early
S/R	Resist-led	Resist-led	Resist-led	Resist-led
Ichimoku	Bull Above	Bull Above	Bear Below	Below 53/47
Wyckoff	Accum 76/24	Dist 22/78	Markdown 16/84	Markdown 28/72
Channels	None Fail↑	None Fail↑	None BO↑	None 69/31
Conviction	Strong	Mixed	Mixed	Moderate

Compact Matrix

TA

4H

1D

1W

OVR

EW Bias

58%

Cycle Lows

Cycle early

S/R

Resist

Ichimoku

Below 53/47

Wyckoff

Markdown 28/72

Channels

None 69/31

Conviction

Strong

Mixed

Mixed

Moderate

External access mode: only the Chart button is available.

Cycle Lows Outlook

Timing and confirmation context for next Daily, Weekly, and Yearly cycle lows.

Days till Daily Cycle Low

Starts 29 Sep 2026

Days till Weekly Cycle Low

Starts 13 Dec 2026

Days till Yearly Cycle Low

Starts 29 Sep 2026

Timing
Next DCL: 37d to window start (29 Sep 2026)
Next WCL: 112d to window start (13 Dec 2026)
Next YCL: 37d to window start (29 Sep 2026)

Translation
Previous DCH: LT
Previous WCH: LT
DCH translation: LT (bearish skew; tops formed early in cycle)
WCH translation: LT (weaker cycle; downside pressure tends to appear earlier)
DCL phase: start (37d to window start)
WCL phase: middle (112d to window start)

Confirmation Signals
DSS Bressert: last cross marker 18 Aug 2026
10WSMA: close-above confirmation on latest WCL
Trendline: break confirmed on 19 Aug 2026
CL Failure: none active

Elliott Wave

4H • Cycle Preview

Highest-probability path: [BEAR] Wave C

4H • EW Snapshot

[BEAR] Wave C (34%)

Pattern: Corrective • Next wave: (d) • Likely target: $76,909

Invalidation: > $81,942

22% Bull / 78% Bear

1D • Cycle Preview

Highest-probability path: [BULL] Bull Reversal

1D • EW Snapshot

[BULL] Bull Reversal (51%)

Pattern: Impulsive • Next wave: (A) • Likely target: $66,924

Invalidation: < $59,117

51% Bull / 49% Bear

1W • Cycle Preview

Highest-probability path: [BULL] Bull Reversal

1W • EW Snapshot

[BULL] Bull Reversal (55%)

Pattern: Corrective • Next wave: (1) • Likely target: $82,829

Invalidation: < $54,871

55% Bull / 45% Bear

Zoomed cycle previews are based on each timeframe's highest-probability EW scenario.

Wyckoff Snapshot

Accumulation • 76/24

ACCUMMARKUDISTRMARKD

Confidence: 61%

Events: SOS, SOS, UT, ST

Trading range: $62,846 - $64,226

Forecast: Markup continuation (66%)

Invalidation: < $62,604

Trigger: close above $64,226 (SOS/LPS confirmation)

Risk anchor: spring/range low near $62,846

Distribution • 22/78

ACCUMMARKUDISTRMARKD

Confidence: 56%

Events: SOS, SOS, SOS, SOS

Trading range: $63,656 - $74,233

Forecast: Markdown continuation (53%)

Invalidation: > $74,669

Trigger: close below $63,656 (SOW continuation)

Risk anchor: UT/range high near $74,233

Markdown • 16/84

ACCUMMARKUDISTRMARKD

Confidence: 42%

Events: LPSY, SOW, SOW, SOS

Trading range: $78,928 - $114,515

Forecast: Markdown continuation (58%)

Invalidation: > $115,840

Trigger: failed rally below $114,515 or break under $78,928

Risk anchor: reclaim above $114,515

Deterministic phase/event context (advisory structure layer, not standalone trade signals).

Ichimoku Snapshot

4H • Ichimoku

Confidence: 53%

State: Above Cloud • TK: BULL • Chikou: yes

Forecast: Bull continuation (62%)

Invalidation: < $71,698

1D • Ichimoku

Confidence: 62%

State: Above Cloud • TK: BULL • Chikou: yes

Forecast: Bull continuation (67%)

Invalidation: < $70,631

1W • Ichimoku

Confidence: 62%

State: Below Cloud • TK: BEAR • Chikou: no

Forecast: Bear continuation (61%)

Invalidation: > $71,089

Cloud-first deterministic Ichimoku regime context with projected trigger/target and invalidation.

Channel Snapshot

4H • Channels

Head and Shoulders • failed up-break

Confidence: 59% • Bull/Bear: 49/51

Stage: developing

Neckline (ext): $44,037 → $83,137

Projected RS: $72,265 @ 23 Aug 2026 (50%)

Breakout: up unconfirmed • vol-z -0.96 • range 0.26x

Target: $79,052 • Invalidation: > $74,363

1D • Channels

Inverse Head and Shoulders • failed up-break

Confidence: 60% • Bull/Bear: 57/43

Stage: confirmed

Neckline (ext): $65,277 → $68,388

Projected RS: confirmed as actual

Breakout: up unconfirmed • vol-z -0.05 • range 1.07x

Target: $76,639 • Invalidation: < $61,753

1W • Channels

Inverse Head and Shoulders • breakout up

Confidence: 79% • Bull/Bear: 82/18

Stage: confirmed

Neckline (ext): $73,760 → $-62,020

Projected RS: confirmed as actual

Breakout: up confirmed • vol-z 0.58 • range 2.55x

Target: $-42,053 • Invalidation: < $71,436

Deterministic channels/wedges with confirmation-based breakout state and risk anchors.

Support / Resistance Snapshot

4H • S/R Snapshot

Nearest Support: $60,716 (21.4%)

Nearest Resistance: $78,341 (1.4%)

Confluence: $79,531 • 1d+1w+4h

1D • S/R Snapshot

Nearest Support: $59,945 (22.2%)

Nearest Resistance: $78,248 (1.5%)

Confluence: $58,361 • 1d+1w+4h

1W • S/R Snapshot

Nearest Support: $61,950 (19.6%)

Nearest Resistance: $79,556 (3.2%)

Confluence: $79,556 • 1d+1w+4h

Nearest S/R and strongest confluence by timeframe (distance measured from current price).